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What truly defines a productive fantasy player? Math geeks know that simply considering the old industry standards of Points Against and Player Cumulative Points will leave way too much to error to be statistically reliable.Thats why I helped create a system that predicts player performance and provides the actual strength of an opponent and actual player production values.When used, this sytem has proven to be up to 37 percent more accurate than the metrics that everyone else in your league is using.The system gives you a Player Rating, Defense Rating, and a Matchup Rating. The ratings are based on the most advanced and accurate mathematical algorithm in , and take into account the following factors: Adjusted Player scoring based on strength of their previous opponents ** Adjusted Defense scoring based on the strength of the players they have faced at each position ** Whether the player and/or defense plays better at home or away ** How the player compares against other players within their same position ** How defenses compare against other defenses against the same positions ** ... and many more!Sound complicated? Dont worry -- its simple to understand. All you need to know is that the player, defense or matchup with the higher rating is the better option. Thats it. Leave the number crunching to the geeks.Use this system as the basis for your fantasy decisions to take the gue swork out of winning Dwyane Wade Jersey in and get the edge on the competition.EDITORS NOTE: The defense ratings for this week are based on numbers from the first 10 weeks of the 2014 regular season. Statistically a three week data sample out of a 16 week fantasy season is enough to draw valuable conclusions. The data continues to become more accurate each week. Plan on coming back for fresh algorithm-based ratings that you cannot get anywhere else!Weekly Matchup RangesThis chart shows the BEST and WORST defensive ratings against each position as of Week 11. The higher the number, the better the matchup:LegendHeres an easy breakdown of how each player module works. When these terms are mentioned in the text (i.e. best) they are corresponding to these ratings and colors:Expect More:Players who could fall short of expectations this week based on the strength of their opponent compared to their inability to overcome a strong opponent.QB returned from injury in Week 9 just in time to face the seventh-toughest rated defense against fantasy quarterbacks. It was the toughest matchup he had faced this year, but Griffin scored more fantasy points than the had allowed on average to all other fantasy quarterbacks this season. The offense has a lot of fantasy potential in general, as under three different quarterbacks they are sixth overall in pa sing yards per game, lead the NFL in yards per pa s attempt (8.1) and are third in yards per completion (12.1). All these numbers show that is not afraid to dial it up for his quarterbacks. Upon Griffins return, the immediately showed some additional versatility in their play calling with plenty of read-options and rollouts. This week, Griffin gets a home game against a defense that is the fifth-easiest rated matchup for fantasy quarterbacks, slightly more attractive than their fantasy points against ranking. The allow the second-most pa sing yards per game to their opponents, allowing every quarterback they have faced to score double digit fantasy points. owners who need a high upside flier this week should invest in . Forecast: Griffin is a good pickup if you are desperate for quarterback help. After this weeks deluxe matchup, he does have a tough one against a bad rated defense, but then nothing but better and best rated matchups between Week 13 and Week 16. This schedule could really let him get hot in time for the fantasy playoffs. Recommended Usage: QB2 If youre looking for quarterback help off the waiver wire this week, could be considered as a matchup-based play. McCown was decent in his first two starts before injury this year. He has a poor player rating due to his limited performance against an easy matchup with the back in Week 3, but he vindicated himself last week with a 19 fantasy point day against the same defense. The are not afraid to air it out either, as the - combination leads the NFL in pa s targets over 20 yards this season. Most of McCowns value this week comes from his opponent, the , who are the leagues easiest-rated matchup for opposing fantasy quarterbacks. The have made quarterbacks like and look productive and McCown has more weapons on offense than either of those signal-callers. The give up 0.54 fantasy points per pa s attempt (FPPA), the third-highest in the league. McCown has been producing 0.79 FPPA in limited starts, so another 43 pa s attempts like he had in Week 10 could yield him his best fantasy day of the season. Forecast: No fantasy quarterback has a more favorable set of matchups in Weeks 11 and 12. After Washington this week he gets the next, who are third-easiest rated matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. The (his Week 13 opponent) are a bad matchup on the season, but over the last five games they have been a top-15 easy matchup. Recommended Usage: QB2 RB continues to lose the starts to each week, but its been clear all season that Stewart is the better back. Stewart has averaged 2.84 yards after contact per carry, which is fifth-best in the NFL. Last week, Stewart was able to get in the end zone for just the second time this season. This was quite a feat considering how terrible the offensive line has been recently. Stewart has averaged 53 percent of the offensive snaps when Williams is active with about 10 touches and scores 0.58 fantasy points per touch (FPPT), so he would be looking at a roughly six-point fantasy day under normal circumstances. However, this week Stewart will be running into better than normal circumstances as he gets to go against the second-easiest rated matchup for running backs -- the . The are in the top 10 in rushing yards allowed and give up 0.65 fantasy points per touch (FPPT) Shaquille ONeal Jersey , which is better than any defense Stewart has faced yet this year. Stewarts two best fantasy games came when he was able to score a touchdown, and the give up more rushing touchdowns per game (1.4) than any other defense in the NFL. That should increase his chances to reach paydirt again this week. Forecast: The backfield has a bye in Week 12, but both Stewart and Williams are worth holding on to due to better rated matchups against the in Week 13 and the in Week 14. Recommended Usage: RB3 returned from a hamstring injury in Week 10 to his normal role in the one-two punch with . The have been in the top 10 in rushing attempts all season and over their last three games are third in the league in yards per rush attempt. Both backs are receiving about 50 percent of the offensive snaps, yet Bradshaw has been the running back getting the most fantasy recognition, averaging 12 fantasy points per game to Richardsons eight. However, Richardson should be a decent flex play this week if you are in need of a one-week plug-in. The are the algorithms third-easiest matchup for running backs and have been a top-five easy matchup all season, allowing 27 fantasy points per game to the position. Richardson should have some opportunities to produce this week, even if they only come in his normal complementary role to Bradshaw. Forecast: Next weeks matchup against the may appear on paper to be another great one, but they are actually only the 15th-easiest rated matchup and have been getting tougher over the last five weeks. Richardson will not have any more decent matchups until Weeks 15 and 16 of the fantasy playoffs. Recommended Usage: FLEX WRIt is hard not to want a piece of the action in the pa sing game. The cheapest way to buy in is to acquire rookie wide receiver . The run more three-wide receiver sets than any other offense and Adams had been playing in at least 75 percent of the offensive snaps going into Week 10. His snap total dropped to 57 percent against the last week (his lowest since Week 2), which was a big surprise after he played 96 percent in Green Bays previous game. This is because the deployed more two-tight end sets, supposedly geared toward the defensive weakne ses. This is the week to jump back in on Adams as the , the third-easiest rated matchup for fantasy receivers, come to Green Bay. The give up big pa s plays and forfeit the fourth-most yards per completion. It is a dangerous matchup for the secondary as they face an unstoppable . and will both get theirs, but the offense should do a better job of keeping up than the did last week. This should keep Rodgers on the field for more than the season-low 44 snaps he had last week. Adams led the in targets in Week 8 and has carved out a role in their pa sing game. The numbers point to Adams being a high-upside flier in this weeks matchup. Forecast: If you need wideout depth or want to backup either or , you must own Adams. The receivers face three top-six rated matchups in the fantasy playoffs. Nelson and Cobb are among the rare group of receivers with such amazing matchups (and talent) that they require a handcuff, and Adams is that handcuff. Recommended Usage: FLEX has given fantasy owners plenty of reasons to start him every week. But in Week 11, he has a matchup that makes him one of the top wide receivers starts of the week. The algorithm just loves Jackson this week. First, Jackson faces the , who are easiest-rated defense against fantasy receivers. This is the best matchup that Jackson has had all year and he is already the algorithms ninth-best rated receiver. Curiously, Jackson only averages 9.8 fantasy points against best rated matchups like the . But his 21 fantasy point average against worst rated defenses is what gives him such a high player rating. This week, Jackson will likely be covered by cornerback (if he plays), and Verner gives up 11.9 fantasy points per game to the receivers he covers, which is the second-worst total of any starting corner. Jackson leads the NFL in yards per catch and has four 100-yard games in his last five outings. Consider him a lock to reach his fifth this week. Forecast: This week is the best matchup a receiver can have but Jackson has two more best rated matchups from Week 14 to Week 16. He faces one very tough matchup against the in Week 13 where he should be left on your bench. Recommended Usage: WR1 TE owners searching for a sleeper tight end this week, should take a look at . Rudolph has been sidelined since undergoing sports hernia surgery back in September and reports indicate he is doing everything he can to get back on the field in Week 11. The backup tight end, , posted 11 catches for 129 receiving yards and one touchdown over the last two weeks, giving us a glimpse of the kind of upside Rudolph can have in s offense. If Rudolph makes it back this week as expected, he is welcomed by an excellent matchup against the , who are the algorithms easiest matchup for fantasy tight ends. The have given up double digits to all green rated tight ends they have faced this year and Rudolph earned a green player rating before going out with his injury in Week 3. The give up 1.52 fantasy points per touch (FPPT) to opposing tight ends and Rudolph was scoring 0.94 FPPT before his injury. Rudolphs injury situation merits watching this week, but he is worth a roster add either way. Forecast: Rudolph comes back at a good time in his schedule. Next week he gets a Green Bay defense that is among the top-15 easiest for tight ends and in Week 14 he has a nice matchup against the third-easiest rated defense for tight ends, the . Even if he doesnt play this week, stash him now to give you rare waiver-wire tight end talent for the stretch run. Recommended Usage: LOW TE1 D/STSD vs. OAK: It might be surprising to see the defense as a starting option this week. After a very strong start they dropped off significantly over the last four games. Much of that lack of production had to do with their opponent strength, but mostly it was due to injuries. The are playing at home, coming out of a bye and will likely welcome back five of their defensive starters this week. They have t been this healthy all season. Last time they played the , they were already depleted by injuries. The have been good to opposing fantasy defenses all season, averaging one sack and 1.3 interceptions per game. Their 281 yards per game and sub-17 points per game averages make them an attractive opponent. Theyve turned the ball over nine times in the last three weeks. Note: The also play the and at home next week. WAS vs. TB: The have become known for their terrible secondary, yet few realize they have been one of the better defenses against the run all season. They have scored double digit fantasy points in two of their last three games and get to host the woeful offense this week. The Bucs give up 2.8 sacks and 1.3 interceptions per game and score le s than 19 points per contest. ATL at CAR: Last week, the showed that they can take advantage of a good matchup, scoring double digit fantasy points against a terrible offense. This week they travel to Carolina to face the offensive line that gave up nine sacks on Monday night to the . Newton has not been able to get on track and is now too banged up to take advantage of the defense.Expect Le s:Players who could fall short of expectations this week based on the strength of their opponent.QBHere is one of the more compelling fantasy stats of the week: leads all players in the NFL in yards per rush attempt. Week 10 was the third time Wilson has gone over 100 rushing yards this season and he now has four rushing touchdowns on the year. This versatility gives Wilson tons of scoring potential outside the pa sing game alone, though he does lean a bit toward the rushing- Andre Iguodala Jersey dependent side, with 36 percent of his total fantasy points this season coming from rushing yards and touchdowns. If you take a look at a combined rushing and pa sing defense rating, Wilsons Week 11 opponent, the , are still one of the worst matchups for a rushing quarterback. The are the fifth-toughest defense against running backs and are the toughest matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Even a quarterback with Wilsons talents will have a tough time in this road game at Kansas City. Seattle is 31st in the league in pa s attempts per game while the defense allows the fewest pa sing yards per game. Oh, and the have yet to allow a rushing touchdown, too. Some of the highest rated fantasy quarterbacks this year have had some of their worst fantasy outputs against the (see ), meaning it could be a rough afternoon for Wilson on Sunday. Forecast: The are Wilsons worst matchup of the season and he doesnt have much more to look forward to after this week. There is only one better rated matchup left for the season in Week 14 against the . That is a matchup worth waiting for, but the three weeks leading up to it will be difficult to survive for those counting on Wilson as their starting quarterback. Recommended Usage: QB2 has provided steady QB2 production ever since becoming the starter. He has not had great matchups during this run, but ran into his first worst rated matchup last week. This week he faces a similarly rated defense in the , but has to play in Miami. Orton has only played two games on the road this season, and one was against the , another worst rated defense. Orton averages 14 fantasy points per game against worst rated matchups and struggled to move the offense last week against the , averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt and taking six sacks. Orton gets a tough matchup on Thursday Night Football this week against the pa s defense that allows the second-fewest pa sing yards per game to opposing offenses and the second-fewest yards per pa s attempt. The allow the leagues lowest fantasy points per attempt to quarterbacks (0.33), and Orton has averaged just 0.88 per attempt thus far. Add all of this together and it amounts to a week in which Orton should be on the fantasy bench. Forecast: The stretch of brutal matchups is not over yet for Orton. He has one more meeting with the worst rated defense in Week 13. The matchup in Week 12 is one to wait for, but its worth noting that the have been trending toward the middle of the pack against fantasy quarterbacks over the last five weeks. Recommended Usage: LOW QB1 RB owners have been eagerly awaiting the return of after four weeks without him, and it seems the feel confident in Jennings ability to play in Week 11. is likely out this week, so should go back to a short-yardage role, while Jennings returns as the featured back. Jennings was seeing at least 15 carries per game earlier this season and sometimes as many as 34 touches. He averages 0.60 fantasy points per touch (FPPT), which is above average for a fantasy back. Jennings is welcomed back with a home game against a tough defense that is the algorithms second-toughest rated matchup for fantasy running backs this season. The rating has been dented in the last couple weeks, giving up double digits to and . However, Jennings is not as highly rated as those two backs. Prior to those two games, only was able to score double digit fantasy points against the run defense. Add to that, the return of linebacker and Jennings owners have reason to temper their expectations for his Week 11 return. Forecast: Jennings timing for his return could have been better. He made it back just in time for his toughest matchup of the season. The good news is that he gets to face three straight better rated matchups in Weeks 12 through 14 before more difficult matchups arrive. Recommended Usage: FLEX owners have been looking forward to seeing what Bell could do with on the sideline, but Bushs ankle tweak last week instead led to more work for . Bell was still able to average his most yards per carry (4.4) of any game this season, but only scored eight fantasy points. Bell has enjoyed a very soft schedule so far this year and has turned that into a 37th-overall algorithm rating among running backs. Detroit gained only 3.3 yards per carry against the in Week 10 and the have a much tougher matchup this week. The could also be without right guard and right tackle this week, making it tough to expect much from any of the rushers. Even worse news for Bell this week is that the travel to Arizona to face the run defense that is third in the NFL in yards per game allowed (78.5) and fourth in yards per rush (3.35). The are currently the algorithms toughest-rated matchup for fantasy running backs and have been one of the toughest all season. Forecast: Bells matchup gets easier next week as he faces the third-easiest rated run defense, followed by a Week 13 matchup against a defense that is rated around the middle of the pack. Recommended Usage: LOW RB3 WR has been picking up steam with three double digit fantasy games over the last month. Fitzgerald was targeted a team-high 10 times last week and dominated the middle of the field. Unfortunately, Fitzgerald lost his starting quarterback in that game and that lo s will have a huge impact on his production moving forward. Three of Fitzgeralds worst games this season came while playing with . The real cause for concern this week is Fitzgeralds Week 11 opponent, the . Detroit allows the second-fewest yards per completion to opposing offenses and is the algorithms fourth-toughest rated matchup for fantasy receivers. Although the have been a slightly easier matchup lately, they still only allow 0.86 fantasy points per attempt (FPPA) to opposing receivers, the Max Strus Jersey fifth-lowest in the league. Fitzgerald should see a lot of stud cornerback , who only allows four fantasy points per game to the receivers he covers. The algorithm gives the such a tough rating due to their ability to contain top rated receivers like , and . Fitzgerald is no longer in the same tier as those receivers and the combination of his opponent and quarterback situation should cap his fantasy scoring upside. Forecast: This week is only the first of four worst rated matchups for receivers. Two games against Seattle and one against the adds up to one of the worst remaining schedules among fantasy receivers. There are a couple good matchups during dates with the in Week 13 and the in Week 15, though. Recommended Usage: FLEX has been a solid fantasy producer since joining the this season. He has already achieved the best statistical season of his career after just nine games. He had a decent day against a very tough secondary in Week 9, scoring for the fifth time in six games. However, LaFell is a regre sion candidate because 37 percent of his fantasy points so far this season came from touchdowns. This week he faces his third worst rated wide receiver matchup of the season as the travel to Indianapolis. The defense appears to have a middle of the pack ranking in fantasy points against, but the algorithm adjusts them to the fifth-toughest rated matchup for fantasy receivers. Even though Ben Roehtlisberger destroyed the pa s defense in Week 8 (without their top cornerback, ), the still allow the sixth-lowest completion percentage to opposing offenses on the season. is a major factor in the effectivene s against fantasy receivers. This week, LaFell will see a ton of Davis, and Davis allows only 7.2 fantasy points to the receivers that he covers. LaFell averages a nice 2.25 fantasy points per touch (FPPT), but the only allow 0.88 FPPT to opposing receivers on the season. Forecast: The are the first in a pair of worst rated matchups for LaFell. Next week the host the stout pa s defense. After these two matchups, LaFell faces Udonis Haslem Jersey better rated matchups in Weeks 13 and 14 against the and . Recommended Usage: FLEX TE has unfairly been tagged as a player who is only productive for fantasy purposes in the month of September. But in reality, he is just a very matchup-dependent player. For example, Bennett averages 12 fantasy points per game against good matchups and only seven fantasy points per game against tough ones. He is still involved in the offensive game plan, playing nearly all of the offensive snaps. Last week he was behind only and with six targets. Unfortunately for Bennett owners, he gets his toughest matchup of the season this week as the host the . The are the second-toughest rated matchup for fantasy tight ends. Their defense rating spiked a bit after holding both and to eight total fantasy points in games earlier this season. The have been trending toward being an easier matchup recently, but only because they have been facing very poorly rated tight ends over the last four games. Only the backup tight end, , has scored more than nine fantasy points against the all season and he did so with a late game score. For a player who has historically needed a good matchup to produce for fantasy, this matchup will likely keep Bennett well below his average fantasy point production. Forecast: Including this week, Bennett has three bad and two worst rated matchups left on his schedule. It is not the type of schedule that will likely lead to the pa sing game suddenly finding its groove again. Recommended Usage: TE2 D/STIND vs. NE: The have been a matchup-dependent fantasy defense all season. They have five games with double digits fantasy points, but those have all come against offenses in the bottom half of the league in production. This week, they host the who will likely continue their 30-plus points per game average. The Pats do not give up many turnovers either, averaging just 0.3 interceptions per game. PHI at GB: How excited are you to have plucked the fantasy defense off waivers this week after they destroyed the on Monday night? Well, unfortunately there was another blowout in primetime this week and it showcased the offense of the Week 11 opponent, the . The will give up a couple sacks per game, but they average over 350 yards, score 30 points per contest and will likely be too much for the defense to contain this week. Week 12 Forecast:Want to get the jump on the Week 12 byes? Dont wait until next weeks waivers, grab these guys now and enjoy their tasty matchups before they are even on your opponents radar:QB: at CHI, at SD, vs. NYJRB: at CHI, vs. JACWR: at ATL, at PHI, vs. STLTE: vs. NYJ, vs. CLEDST: BUF vs. NYJ, IND vs. JAC, GB at MIN-- Chris Anthony is a guest contributor to NFL.com, hailing from . You can follow him on Twitter . Be sure to check back each week for more analytics-based analysis as the algorithm will only get more accurate over time!

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